The science of estimation

By Fred Heath

Elevator Pitch

Modern software task estimation methods mostly range from ‘finger-in-the-air’ approaches, to educated guesses to the ‘no estimates’ philosophy. This talk will demonstrate an objective, consistent and reliable algorithmic method for estimating with User-Story Points.

Description

The USP (User-Story Point) estimation method has been derived using the scientific method and relies on assessing and evaluating all factors that affect the complexity and feasibility of a User Story. A number of technical, environmental and human-interaction factors are appraised and a well-defined algorithm is used to generate a points score for for the estimated task.

Notes

I am a Cardiff-based, polyglot developer with over 20 years of experience as a software developer. I’m also experienced in speaking internationally and locally on programming-related subjects and also writing technical articles and blogging. My last Bristech talk generated a lot of positive feedback. My talks and writing can also be found at:

Estimation has a always been a stressful task for software developers. Agile methodologies tend to advocate subjective and inconsistent ways for estimating, such as ‘planning poker’. This leads to false estimates, poor planning and internal strife. I have leveraged a tried and tested method of estimating (Use-Case Estimates) and adjusted it to deal with modern software development parameters in an Agile environment. I have also field-tested and refined the method against real-life projects. The result is the User Story Point estimation method.

I have given this talk before at SwanseaCon 2016. The talk I aim to give at Bristech will be an improved and updated version of that talk.

I require no travel expenses, as I am local to the area.